I am trying to stay awake for another hour or so, so I thought I would post this. Basically I am calling the November US Presidential election for the McCain/Palin ticket. We can place bets later, but here are my reasons.
The Japanese are finally getting around to breaking up their one-party system. However, this is always hard to do in a parliamentary system where last ditch efforts to form a coalition government are typically successful.
However, out of Israel last week we have similar news. Now, I have never really been a fan of the Kadima party, but to their credit they are far more moderate than many of the minor Israeli parties.
Even still, I can get behind Tzipi Livni. I think she is much more pragmatic and moderate than Sharon and Olmert were (at least where it counts [the Palestinian situation]).
Now here is the clincher: if she can form a coalition government she becomes the next Prime Minister. (In the West there is a lot of talk about her being the “Second Female Israeli PM”, as if this somehow matters, since the Democrats failed to elect Hilary Clinton. Really I don’t think this matters one bit, and really isn’t a novelty in a way. Don’t be fooled by the media in any way. The *only* way it could matter is if the Arab world doesn’t see her as being immediately hostile on issues like the Palestinians and Lebanon, like they were with her two predecessors [rightly so, as it turns out].) However, the timeline of events works out such that Livni will either be the new Prime Minister a couple of weeks before the November election -OR- Israel also has to go to a general election.
Right now, it looks fairly likely that Livni will be able to pull out some sort of government. And this is my central point. Life isn’t good enough to me for both Obama *and* Livni to succeed, so McCain will probably win. Mark my words.
This is actually a safe bet for me either way if you think about it. So who is up for it? I got $5+ on Livni forming a coalition government by the November elections and becoming prime minister and then McCain grabbing the presidency. We got 3 other combinations here (7 if you wanna throw in Japan), any takers?